There is a growing likelihood America and allies may launch a large scale assault on Iran, possibly as soon as this weekend. Multiple reports suggest the United States is preparing for a prolonged war with Iran against the backdrop of the largest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East in over 2 decades. The buildup comes after Donald Trump pledged to help Iranian protestors, who were demonstrating against the regime in early January. Reports indicate that over 20,000 people may have been killed in a harsh government crackdown.

There are some indications the U.S. originally intended to launch an attack on the night of January 12th but it was called off at the last moment by president Trump over fears that the U.S. did not currently have enough assets in place to defend its interests, and a lack of clear objectives for the airstrikes.

In the weeks since, Trump has been briefed on a wide range of potential options as the U.S. has moved military equipment to several bases in CENTCOM, including Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar. Carrier Strike Group 3, led by aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), has moved from INDOPACOM to CENTOM and is now positioned off the cost of Oman. CNN has also reported the U.S. has deployed both THAAD and Patriot air defence batteries to protect their military bases across the region in the event of a widespread war.

Major airlines have already began cancelling and rerouting flights throughout the region in anticipation of major disruption to commercial operations. Israel has begun preparing shelters, particularly in northern regions along the border with Lebanon, home to the powerful Iranian backed militant group Hezbollah. There are indications similar preparations are ongoing across Iran, with the mayor of Tehran announcing that underground parking lots and metro stations will be transformed into war shelters amid growing fears in Iran that an American attack may be imminent. This follows reports from earlier in the week that suggested Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had also been moved to a fortified bunker in the capital.

Israel and Iran fought a brief 12 day war in 2025, that culminated in U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. In the months since it is believed that Tehran has taken significant steps rebuild and upgrade their missile arsenal. While the Iranian government is in a vulnerable position following the 12 day war and weeks of unrest in January, it is widely believed Tehran still has significant capacity to wreak havoc throughout the Middle East, particularly in the event that Iranian leadership is targeted. In the previous conflict Iran largely avoided attacking its regional neighbours that housed American troops and bases, instead opting to focus their strikes mainly on Israel. Should America attack again, Iran would likely not hold back. Additionally, Tehran’s proxies, while degraded, still hold significant influence across vast swaths of the region, allowing for localized retaliatory attacks. Should a full scale war break out, it would almost certainly last many months and be far more disruptive than any previous confrontations between Iran and Israel.